The Helpful Home Buyer Blog • June 13, 2023

The Main Reason Mortgage Rates Are So High

by Jeffrey Fulchino

Today’s mortgage rates are top-of-mind for many homebuyers right now. As a result, if you’re thinking about buying for the first time or selling your current house to move into a home that better fits your needs, you may be asking yourself these two questions:

Why Are Mortgage Rates So High?
When Will Rates Go Back Down?

Here’s context you need to help answer those questions.

1. Why Are Mortgage Rates So High?

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is largely influenced by the supply and demand for mortgage-backed securities (MBS). According to Investopedia:

“Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are investment products similar to bonds. Each MBS consists of a bundle of home loans and other real estate debt bought from the banks that issued them . . . The investor who buys a mortgage-backed security is essentially lending money to home buyers.”

Demand for MBS helps determine the spread between the 10-Year Treasury Yield and the 30-year fixed mortgage rate. Historically, the average spread between the two is 1.72 (see chart below):

Last Friday morning, the mortgage rate was 6.85%. That means the spread was 3.2%, which is almost 1.5% over the norm. If the spread was at its historical average, mortgage rates would be 5.37% (3.65% 10-Year Treasury Yield + 1.72 spread).

This large spread is very unusual. As George Ratiu, Chief Economist at Keeping Current Matters (KCM), explains:

“The only times the spread approached or exceeded 300 basis points were during periods of high inflation or economic volatility, like those seen in the early 1980s or the Great Financial Crisis of 2008-09.”

The graph below uses historical data to help illustrate this point by showing the few times the spread has increased to 300 basis points or more:

The graph shows how the spread has come down after each peak. The good news is, that means there’s room for mortgage rates to improve today.

So, what’s causing the larger spread and making mortgage rates so high today?

The demand for MBS is heavily influenced by the risks associated with investing in them. Today, that risk is impacted by broader market conditions like inflation and fear of a potential recession, the Fed’s interest rate hikes to try to bring down inflation, headlines that create unnecessarily negative narratives about home prices, and more.

Simply put: when there’s less risk, demand for MBS is high, so mortgage rates will be lower. On the other hand, if there’s more risk with MBS, demand for MBS will be low, and we’ll see higher mortgage rates as a result. Currently, demand for MBS is low, so mortgage rates are high.

2. When Will Rates Go Back Down?

Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, answers that question in a recent blog:

“It’s reasonable to assume that the spread and, therefore, mortgage rates will retreat in the second half of the year if the Fed takes its foot off the monetary tightening pedal and provides investors with more certainty. However, it’s unlikely that the spread will return to its historical average of 170 basis points, as some risks are here to stay.”

Bottom Line

The spread will shrink when the fear investors feel is eased. That’ll mean we should see mortgage rates moderate as the year goes on. However, when it comes to forecasting mortgage rates, no one can know for sure exactly what will happen.

The Helpful Home Buyer Blog • June 6, 2023

Real Estate Is Still Considered the Best Long-Term Investment

by Jeffrey Fulchino

With all the headlines circulating about home prices and rising mortgage rates, you may wonder if it still makes sense to invest in homeownership right now. A recent poll from Gallup shows the answer is yes. In fact, real estate was voted the best long-term investment for the 11^th consecutive year, consistently beating other investment types like gold, stocks, and bonds (see graph below):

If you’re thinking about purchasing a home, let this poll reassure you. Even with everything happening today, Americans recognize owning a home is a powerful financial decision.

Why Do Americans Still Feel So Positive About the Value of Investing in a Home?

Purchasing real estate has typically been a solid long-term strategy for building wealth in America. As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), notes:

“. . . homeownership is a catalyst for building wealth for people from all walks of life. A monthly mortgage payment is often considered a forced savings account that helps homeowners build a net worth about 40 times higher than that of a renter.”

That’s because owning a home grows your net worth over time as your home appreciates in value and as you pay down your mortgage. And, since building that wealth takes time, it may make sense to start as soon as you can. If you wait to buy and keep renting, you’ll miss out on those monthly housing payments going toward your home equity.

Bottom Line

Buying a home is a powerful decision. So, it’s no wonder so many people view real estate as the best long-term investment. If you’re ready to start on your own journey toward homeownership, let’s connect today.

The Helpful Home Owner Blog • May 26, 2023

The Best Time To Sell Your House Is When Others Aren’t Selling

by Jeffrey Fulchino

If you’re thinking about selling your Connecticut home or anywhere for that matter, you should know the number of homes for sale right now is low. That’s because, this Spring, there are fewer sellers listing their houses for sale than the norm.

Looking back at every April since 2017, the only year when fewer sellers listed their homes was in April 2020, when the pandemic hit and stalled the housing market (shown in red in the graph below). In more typical years, roughly 500,000 sellers add their homes to the market in April. This year, we saw fewer than 400,000 sellers entering the market in April (see graph below):

While there are a number of factors contributing to this trend, one thing keeping inventory low right now is that some homeowners are reluctant to move when the mortgage rate they have on their current house is lower than the one they could get today on their next house. It’s called rate lock.

As a recent survey from Realtor.com explains, 56% of people who are planning to sell in the next 12 months say they’re waiting for rates to come down.

While this wait-and-see approach is right for some sellers, it also creates an opening for more eager sellers to jump in now.

If your current house truly doesn’t fit your needs anymore and you’re ready to move, don’t miss this chance to stand out. When fewer sellers are putting their homes up for sale, buyers will have fewer options, so you set yourself up to get the most eyes possible on your house. That’s why your house could see multiple offers as buyers compete over the limited supply of homes for sale – especially if you price it right.

As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says:

“Inventory levels are still at historic lows . . . Consequently, multiple offers are returning on a good number of properties.”

Bottom Line

If you’re ready to sell now, beat the competition before it comes onto the market. If you do, your house should stand out and could get multiple offers. Let’s connect to get you market ready.

The Helpful Home Buyer Blog • April 26, 2023

The Three Factors Affecting Home Affordability Today

by Jeffrey Fulchino

There’s been a ton of media focus on higher mortgage rates and how they’re creating affordability challenges for today’s homebuyers. It’s true that rates climbed dramatically since the record-low we saw during the pandemic. But home affordability is based on more than just mortgage rates – it’s determined by a combination of mortgage rates, home prices, and wages.

Considering how each one of these factors is changing gives you the full picture of home affordability today. Here’s the latest.

1. Mortgage Rates

While mortgage rates are higher than they were a year ago, they’ve hovered primarily between 6% and 7% for nearly eight months now (see graph below):

As the graph shows, mortgage rates have experienced some volatility during that time. And even a small change in mortgage rates impacts your purchasing power. That’s why it’s so important to lean on your team of real estate professionals for expert advice to stay up to date on what’s happening in the market. While it’s hard to project where mortgage rates will go from here, many experts agree they’ll likely continue to remain around 6%-7% in the immediate future.

2. Home Prices

Over the past few years, home prices appreciated rapidly as the record-low mortgage rates we saw during the pandemic led to a surge in buyer demand. The heightened buyer demand happened while the supply of homes for sale was at record lows, and that imbalance put upward pressure on home prices. However, today’s higher mortgage rates have slowed down price appreciation.

And, the truth is, home price appreciation varies by market. Some areas are seeing slight declines while others have prices that are climbing. As Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at CoreLogic, explains:

“The divergence in home price changes across the U.S. reflects a tale of two housing markets. Declines in the West are due to the tech industry slowdown and a severe lack of affordability after decades of undersupply. The consistent gains in the Southeast and South reflect strong job markets, in-migration patterns and relative affordability due to new home construction.”

To find out what’s happening with prices here in Connecticut, Please reach out and we’d be happy to show you whats going on in the local housing market.

3. Wages

The most positive factor in affordability right now is rising income. The graph below uses data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to show how wages have grown over time:

Higher wages improve affordability because they reduce the percentage of your income it takes to pay your mortgage since you don’t have to put as much of your paycheck toward your monthly housing cost.

Home affordability comes down to a combination of rates, prices, and wages. If you have questions or want to learn more, reach out to a real estate professional who can explain what’s happening locally and how these factors work together.

Bottom Line

If you’re planning to buy a home, knowing the key factors that impact affordability is important so you can make an informed decision. To stay up to date on the latest on each, let’s connect today.

The Helpful Home Owner Blog • April 5, 2023

2 Reasons You Should Sell Your Connecticut Home Now

by Jeffrey Fulchino

Wondering if you should sell your Connecticut home this year? As you make your decision, think about what’s motivating you to consider moving. A recent survey from realtor.com asked why homeowners are thinking about selling their houses this year. Here are the top two reasons (see graphic below):

Let’s break those reasons down and explore how they might resonate with you.

1. I Want To Take Advantage of the Current Market and Make a Profit

When you decide to sell your house, how much you’ll make from the sale will likely be top of mind. So, here’s some good news: according to the latest data, the average seller can expect a strong return on their investment when they make a move. ATTOM explains:

“The $112,000 profit on median-priced home sales in 2022 represented a 51.4% return on investment compared to the original purchase price, up from 44.6% last year and from 32.8% in 2020.”

Even though home prices have declined slightly in some markets, they’re still much higher overall than they were just a few years ago, especially here in Connecticut. To understand what’s happening with home prices in your area and the current value of your house, work with a local real estate professional. They can give you the best advice on how much you could gain if you sell this year.

2. My Home No Longer Meets My Needs

The average person has been in their house for ten years. That’s a long time when you think about how much may have changed in your life since you moved in. And typically, those changes have a direct impact on what you need in a home. Whether it’s more (or less) space, different features, or a location closer to your work or loved ones, your current house may no longer check all the boxes of what feels like home to you. If that’s the case, it could be time to work with a real estate agent to find a better fit.

Bottom Line

If you’re thinking about selling your house, there’s probably a good reason for it. Let’s connect so you can make a move that’ll help you accomplish your goals this year.

The Helpful Home Owner Blog • March 17, 2023

What Buyer Activity Tells Us About the Housing Market

by Jeffrey Fulchino

Though the housing market is no longer experiencing the frenzy of a year ago, buyers are showing their interest in purchasing a home. According to U.S. News:

“Housing markets have cooled slightly, but demand hasn’t disappeared, and in many places remains strong largely due to the shortage of homes on the market.”

That activity can be seen in the latest ShowingTime Showing Index, which is a measure of buyers actively touring available homes (see graph below):

The 62% jump in showings from December to January is one of the largest on record. There were also more showings in January than in any other month since last May. As you can see in the graph, it’s normal for showings to increase early in the year, but the jump this January was larger than usual, and a lot of that has to do with mortgage rates. Michael Lane, VP of Sales and Industry at ShowingTime+, explains:

“It’s typical to see a seasonal increase in home showings in January as buyers get ready for the spring market, but a larger increase than any January before after last year’s rapid cooldown is significant. Mortgage rate activity this spring will play a big role in sales activity, but January’s home showings are a positive sign that buyers are getting back out there . . .”

It’s important to note that mortgage rates hovered in the low 6% range in January, which played a role in the high number of showings. What does this mean? When mortgage rates eased, buyer interest climbed. The jump in home showings early this year makes one thing clear – while rates may be volatile right now, there are interested buyers out there, and when mortgage rates are favorable, they’re ready to make their move.

The Helpful Home Owner Blog • March 4, 2023

Equity Gains for Connecticut Homeowners

by Jeffrey Fulchino

Connecticut homeowners are sitting on significant equity, even as home price appreciation has eased recently. If you’re a homeowner, your net worth got a boost over the past few years thanks to rising home prices. Here’s what it means for you, even as the market moderates.

How Equity Has Grown in Recent Years

Because of the imbalance between how many homes were for sale and the number of homebuyers in the market over the past few years, home prices appreciated substantially.

And while price appreciation has slowed this year, that doesn’t mean you’ve lost all the equity in your home. In fact, the latest Homeowner Equity Insights report from CoreLogic finds the average homeowner’s equity has grown by $34,300 over the past year alone.

And if you’ve been in your home longer than that, chances are you have even more equity than you realize.

While that’s the national number, if you want to know what happened in you area, look at the map below from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). It shows on average how much home prices have risen over the past five years, which has been a major driver behind equity growth.

Why This Is So Important Right Now

While equity helps increase your overall net worth, it can also help you achieve other goals, like buying your next home. When you sell your current house, the equity you’ve built up comes back to you in the sale, and it may be just what you need to cover a large portion – if not all – of the down payment on your next home.

So, if you’ve been holding off on selling, it may be time to find out how much equity you have in your home and how it can help fuel your next move.

So What’s the Bottom Line

Homeownership overall is a long game, and if you’re planning to make a move, the equity you’ve gained over time can make a huge impact. To find out just how much equity you have in your current Connecticut home and how you can use it to fuel your next purchase, let’s connect.

The Helpful Home Buyer Blog • February 27, 2023

How to Make Your Dream of Buying a Home in Connecticut a Reality

by Jeffrey Fulchino

According to a recent Harris Poll survey, 8 in 10 Americans say buying a home is a priority, and 28 million Americans actually plan to buy within the next 12 months. Homeownership provides many financial and nonfinancial benefits, so that interest is understandable.

However, it’s unlikely all 28 million Americans will accomplish that goal in the coming year. Experts project a total of around five million homes will be sold in 2023. Why is there such a big difference? It’s partly because there can be challenges to buying a home.

In the same survey, when asked, “Which of the following are preventing you from pursuing homeownership at this time?”:

34% answered, “I don’t have enough saved for a down payment”
30% answered, “My credit score”

If you’re aiming to buy a home, here’s what you need to know to accomplish that goal.

Save for Your Down Payment

Your down payment is a big chunk of what you pay up front for your home. For most home purchases, buyers put down some amount of cash up front (a down payment) and then take out a loan (a mortgage) to pay for the rest.

It’s a longstanding myth that you need to pay 20% of the purchase price for your down payment. In reality, 20% down isn’t always required. In fact, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), today’s median down payment is 14% for the average buyer and just 6% for a first-time buyer.

Regardless of how much money you can save for your down payment, know there’s help available. A local lender can show you options to help you get closer to your down payment goal. Plus, there are even loan types, like FHA loans, with down payments as low as 3.5% for some buyers, as well as options like VA loans and USDA loans with no down payment requirements for qualified applicants.

Beyond assistance programs and different loan types, here are a few other tips to help you as you save for your down payment:

Remember to factor in closing costs. In addition to your down payment, closing costs are usually 2-5% of the home’s purchase price.
Maintain your savings. Your down payment shouldn’t deplete all your savings. It’s important to still have some money set aside for homeownership expenses after you move in.
Explore your options and lean on your trusted advisor for expert guidance. Do your research, ask questions, and look into the resources available for buyers like you.

Improve Your Credit Score

Your credit score is a number that indicates how financially reliable you are to lenders. A higher credit score usually means you’ll be able to borrow more money at a better interest rate. If your credit score is preventing you from getting an affordable mortgage, there are steps you can take to improve it. Here are two easy ones:

Pay your bills on time. When you pay your bills on time, your credit score improves. When you’re late, it takes a hit. One way to make paying your bills on time easier? Set up automatic payments when and where you can.
Mix it up. From auto loans, to credit cards, to mortgages – there are several different types of credit. And having a mix of them improves your credit score.

Bottom Line

If you want to purchase a home this year, let’s connect so we can start preparing.

The Helpful Home Owner Blog • February 21, 2023

What Are Closing Costs and How Much Can You Expect to Pay

by Jeffrey Fulchino

The Helpful Home Buyer Blog • February 16, 2023

What You Should Know About Closing Costs in Connecticut

by Jeffrey Fulchino

Before you buy a home, it’s important to plan ahead. While most buyers consider how much they need to save for a down payment, many Connecticut home buyers are surprised by the closing costs they have to pay. To ensure you aren’t caught off guard when it’s time to close on your home, you need to understand what closing costs are and how much you should budget for.

What Are Closing Costs?

People are sometimes surprised by closing costs because they don’t know what they are. According to Bankrate:

“Closing costs are the fees and expenses you must pay before becoming the legal owner of a house, condo or townhome . . . Closing costs vary depending on the purchase price of the home and how it’s being financed . . .”

In other words, your closing costs are a collection of fees and payments involved with your transaction. According to Freddie Mac, while they can vary by location and situation, closing costs typically include:

Government recording costs
Appraisal fees
Credit report fees
Lender origination fees
Title services
Tax service fees
Survey fees
Attorney fees
Underwriting Fees

How Much Will You Need To Budget for Closing Costs?

Understanding what closing costs include is important, but knowing what you’ll need to budget to cover them is critical, too. According to the Freddie Mac article mentioned above, the costs to close are typically between 2% and 5% of the total purchase price of your home. With that in mind, here’s how you can get an idea of what you’ll need to cover your closing costs.

Let’s say you find a home you want to purchase for the median price of $366,900. Based on the 2-5% Freddie Mac estimate, your closing fees could be between roughly $7,500 and $18,500.

Keep in mind, if you’re in the market for a home above or below this price range, your closing costs will be higher or lower.

What’s the Best Way To Make Sure You’re Prepared at Closing Time?

Freddie Mac provides great advice for homebuyers, saying:

“As you start your homebuying journey, take the time to get a sense of all costs involved – from your down payment to closing costs.”

Work with a team of trusted real estate professionals to understand exactly how much you’ll need to budget for closing costs. An agent can help connect you with a lender, and together your expert team can answer any questions you might have.

Bottom Line

It’s important to plan for the fees and payments you’ll be responsible for at closing. Let’s connect so I can help you feel confident throughout the process.

The Main Reason Mortgage Rates Are So High

1. Why Are Mortgage Rates So High?

2. When Will Rates Go Back Down?

Bottom Line

Real Estate Is Still Considered the Best Long-Term Investment

Why Do Americans Still Feel So Positive About the Value of Investing in a Home?

Bottom Line

The Best Time To Sell Your House Is When Others Aren’t Selling

Bottom Line

The Three Factors Affecting Home Affordability Today

1. Mortgage Rates

2. Home Prices

3. Wages

Bottom Line

2 Reasons You Should Sell Your Connecticut Home Now

1. I Want To Take Advantage of the Current Market and Make a Profit

2. My Home No Longer Meets My Needs

Bottom Line

What Buyer Activity Tells Us About the Housing Market

Equity Gains for Connecticut Homeowners

How Equity Has Grown in Recent Years

Why This Is So Important Right Now

So What’s the Bottom Line

How to Make Your Dream of Buying a Home in Connecticut a Reality

Save for Your Down Payment

Improve Your Credit Score

Bottom Line

What Are Closing Costs and How Much Can You Expect to Pay

What You Should Know About Closing Costs in Connecticut

What Are Closing Costs?

How Much Will You Need To Budget for Closing Costs?

What’s the Best Way To Make Sure You’re Prepared at Closing Time?

Bottom Line

Home

Properties

About Me

Blog

Neighborhood News